OSCARS '09
(David Cross and Kate Winslet in "The Reader", Viola Davis in "Doubt", Josh Brolin in "Milk", Dev Patel in "Slumdog Millionaire")
Well, here we go again, the Oscar nominations have been announced, and Hollywood's biggest horse race of the year has begun. While the Oscars supposedly go to the "best" performances of the year, the winners actually win for a variety of reasons, i.e. popularity, politics, lifetime achievements, sympathy, etc. Sometimes the Oscar goes to the person who actually delivered the strongest acting performance, but don't count on it. Remember in high school when your vote for the Homecoming Queen depended on whether or not you liked her, if you didn't like her, if you thought she was a slut... well the Oscar race is just an overgrown Homecoming Pageant, only the people are older, much richer and have egos the size of Oprah Winfrey's ass.
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Best Actor:
Richard Jenkins - "The Visitor"
Frank Langella - "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn - "Milk"
Brad Pitt - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke - "The Wrestler"
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We'd like to see Sean Penn win so with the help of the movie "Milk" we can continue to shove our gay rights agenda down the throats of America and maybe even recruit a few small children to come over to the gay darkside... oh sorry, we were channeling Jerry Falwell for a moment. Seriously, we loved Penn in "Milk" and thought his performance encompassed a full range of the human arc, and not for one second did we think we were watching Penn, he became Harvey Milk.
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Who will win: Langella. Frankly, it's a four-way race, Jenkins is the only contender who you can safely bet against, he's just not well known enough. His nomination is his reward. Mickey Rourke is a sentimental favorite, but he's just too weird for the older, more conservative Oscar voters, and even though everyone loves Brad Pitt, most people still don't think he can act, and having Angelina Jolie is reward enough. So it comes down to Penn and Frank Langella. We have to go with Langella; Penn has already won an Oscar, and many will think it's Langella's turn to be rewarded for a lifetime of strong performances.
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Best Actress:
Anne Hathaway - "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie - "Changeling"
Melissa Leo - "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep - "Doubt"
Kate Winslet - "The Reader"
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We'd like to see Kate Winslet win. She blew us away in this role, playing a depressed, empty shell of a woman who's guilt has turned her into a walking ghost. There are no hysterics in this performance; it's just a bleak, realistic performance that's very unsettling to watch. Winslet's never had a role this complex, and she blows it out of the water.
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Who will win: Winslet. Forget Leo and Hathaway. No one knows who Leo is, and no one saw the movie. Hathaway is a popular young ingenue, but many will assume that she'll have plenty of chances in the future to win. Jolie could take it, but she's won before, and she's not as popular in Hollywood as she once was. Don't count out Streep, but she's already widely recognized as the most important actress of our time, so many voters will consider that reward enough. It's definitely Winslet's year. She's been nominated five times before, but has never won, and she's very well liked in Tinseltown. And strangely enough, her performance really was probably the strongest of the year. Go figure.
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Best Supporting Actor:
Josh Brolin - "Milk"
Robert Downey, Jr. - "Tropic Thunder"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - "Doubt"
Heath Ledger - "Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon - "Revolutionary Road"
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We'd like to see Josh Brolin win. Not only for his strong, understated performance in "Milk", but because we loved him in "W." and "No Country for Old Men", films for which he wasn't recognized. He's got incredibly strong career momentum going for him, and we'd like to see of what else he's capable.
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Who will win: Brolin. Michael Shannon? Never heard of him. Hoffman already won an Oscar, and his role in "Doubt" was lightweight. Normally, we'd say the Academy might as well go ahead and mail Brolin's Oscar to him, that he's got it nailed down, but in this particular year, he's going up against two actors who have very strong sentiment on their sides. Ledger is dead, and this would be the Academy's last chance to give him the Oscar he should have won for "Brokeback Mountain". However, despite those strong feelings of sympathy, Oscar has only once before gone to a dead actor, Peter Finch for "Network". And the crucial difference here is that Finch's performance in "Network" was iconic and still leaves one breathless thirty years later, while Ledger's role wasn't really that meaty. Unusual, yes, but meaty? no. Plus, if Ledger wins, then someone else will have to accept the award for him, and no one wants to watch some unknown second-stringer get all choked up on someone else's behalf. On the other hand, Downey, Jr. is still with us and very much alive. After years of a drug wash-out, he's come roaring back to not only shine in several small roles, but to also star in one of the biggest blockbusters of the year in "Ironman". And never forget how much Hollywood loves blockbusters. Blockbusters mean the studio chiefs get to hire another nanny, buy another beach house and purchase even more expensive gifts for their mistresses. So it'll all come down to which vote wins, sentiment or real career achievement. In the end, even though the audience would love to see Downey, Jr. complete his comeback with an emotional, teary-eyed acceptance speech, we're going with Brolin, simply because his role was dramatic and Downey, Jr.'s was comedic. And drama almost always trumps comedy when it comes to finding Oscar's g-spot.
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Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams - "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz - "Vicky Christina Barcelona"
Viola Davis - "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson - "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei - "The Wrestler"
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We'd like to see Viola Davis win. Even though she only had one scene in "Doubt", in that one scene she stunningly portrayed a woman who transformed in seconds from someone who was nervous and scared to desperately overwhelmed to someone who was frighteningly determined and could back down Meryl Streep with one look. We haven't seen a single-scene performance that strong since Beatrice Straight won an Oscar for a similar sized role in "Network".
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Who will win: Cruz. Viola Davis is new to the heavyweight scene and as mentioned, her role is very small. She could win, but don't bet on it. Amy Adams is slowly building real momentum toward a future Oscar, but not for this lighter role. Marisa Tomei manages a nomination every so often only because the Academy is still embarrassed for having given her the Oscar for "My Cousin Vinny", and they're hoping that if she wins another, they'll be vindicated. Forget it. Come on, Academy, just admit you fucked up and live with it. Henson is one of those "Fu Fu" nominations. The Academy likes to think that it's high minded and artistically gifted, you know, as in fancy, or "fu fu". Please. Most of the people in the Academy are about as able to recognize real art as we're able to put on a bra and pass for Angelina Jolie. But the way that the Academy tries to earn it's "Fu Fu" cred is by every so often nominating someone that no one else has even heard of, thus seeming to know something the rest of us don't, thus seeming more insightful than us, thus more "Fu Fu". Don't fall for it, it's "Fu Fu" bullshit, and what's most sad about it, is the same people who nominate someone like Henson wouldn't actually vote for her in a million years. So that leaves Cruz. And she'll win for a variety of reasons. She's been nominated before, thus having earned the respect of the Academy, and she's worked for years earning her dues, turning in a number of solid performances, (she probably should have been nominated for 2001's "Blow"). She's very good in "Vicky", but the most important indicator of her potential to win is the fact that "Vicky" is a Woody Allen movie, and Woody Allen has an incredible track record for directing actors to Oscars noms and wins. Fourteen actors have been Oscar nominated from Allen directed films and four have won: Diane Keaton, Michael Caine, Diane Wiest, Mira Sorvino. On the night of February 22, 2009, we suspect that winning tally will go to five.
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Best Director:
Who cares?
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Best Movie:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
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We'd like to see "Milk" win, but we predict the winner will be "Slumdog Millionaire".
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