(amy adams in "the master")
This one's easy. Two words: Anne Hathaway. Just like Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor, Hathaway is a lock to not only get an Oscar nomination, but will more than likely win the naked golden man as well. Hathaway has hit all the right buttons: she's won 21 out of 35 critics awards this season, she's wildly popular with the audiences who have seen the film, "Les Miserables", and more importantly, Oscar voters are practically drooling to forgive her for her disastrous turn as Oscar's co-host last year. Popular opinion has solidified into the belief that James Franco was the "heavy" who ruined poor Hathaway's chance to shine as Oscar's host, and therefore the Oscar voters strongly feel the need to let poor, little bug-eyed Hathaway know that they still love her, even while they hate that awful James Franco. And if you think this sounds like a bunch of grown adults acting like junior high school students voting for prom queen, you're right. Welcome to Oscar World!
(ann dowd in "compliance")
Prediction: Hathaway, Field, Adams, Hunt and... Maggie Smith or Ann Dowd.