The Oscar Pool is Getting Thinner

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It's always at this time of year that the bulk of awards have been handed out from the country's various film critics associations. There are few more still to go, but frontrunners for the Oscars are definitely emerging. Later come the individual industry awards, (Writer's Guild, Screen Actors Guild, Director's Guild), and then the awards which no one really takes seriously, but which still garner a lot of publicity, The Golden Globes, and then it all ends with the ultimate prize, the Oscars.

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So let's look at where we stand today. We've already reported the winners for the National Board of Review, (NBR), and the Gotham Independent Film Awards, (Gotham). And over the weekend we learned of the winners of the film awards from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, (L.A.), the Boston Society of Film Critics, (Boston), the D.C. Film Critics Association, (D.C.), and the New York Film Critics Online, (NYOn).

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All four of the groups, L.A., Boston, D.C. and New York Online gave their Best Picture Award to "The Social Network". And then they started disagreeing. Colin Firth won Best Actor from L.A. and D.C., while Boston awarded Jesse Eisenberg and NYOn awarded James Franco.

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(colin firth in "the king's speech")

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For Best Actress, Natalie Portman scored twice, from NYOn and Boston, with Jennifer Lawrence winning in D.C. Interestingly, L.A. named an unknown, Kim Hye-Ja in "Mother" as their Best Actress, but they named Jennifer Lawrence as the runner-up. As we've mentioned before, our eye is on Jennifer Lawrence.

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(juliette lewis in "conviction")

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In the Supporting Actress category, Melissa Leo scored from D.C. and NYon, and Jackie Weaver won in L.A. Boston selected someone who heretofore hadn't gotten much buzz, Juliette Lewis in "Conviction".

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(niels arestrup in "the prophet")

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But the acting category which might be shaping up as the surest thing since last year's Mo'Nique win is in the Supporting Actor category. L.A. named an unknown, Niels Arestrup in "The Prophet", but the other three groups all agreed on Christian Bale in "The Fighter". Add those Bale wins to his win last week from the National Board of Review, and it means that Bale has won four of the five acting awards given so far for Supporting Actor.

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(mark wahlberg and christian bale in "the fighter")

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But be careful, as we've cautioned before, these critics groups don't necessarily predict the outcome of the Oscars. Last year, "The Hurt Locker" won Oscar's Best Picture, but of these six groups, only three of them named that film as the Best Picture of 2009.

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Here is the overall summary so far:

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Best Picture: "The Social Network"-5 wins; "Winter's Bone"-1 win

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Best Actor: Colin Firth-2 wins; Jesse Eisenberg-2 wins; James Franco-1 win

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Best Actress: Natalie Portman- 2 wins; Jennifer Lawrence, Lesley Manville, Kim Hye-Ja-1 win

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Supporting Actor: Christian Bale-4 wins; Niels Arestrup-1 win

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Supporting Actress: Jackie Weaver-2 wins; Melissa Leo-2 wins; Juliette Lewis-1 win