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Monday, January 10, 2011

The DGA's Golden Touch

A couple of days ago, "The Social Network" picked up the Best Picture Award from the prestigious National Society of Film Critics, which brings the movie's win tally to 23 out of 28 trophies given so far this year from the country's various film critics groups. But as we've cautioned for several weeks now, Oscar voters are not critics, and just because one movie sweeps the critics awards doesn't mean it will do the same at the Oscars.
But today, nominations were announced which definitely do foreshadow Oscar success. Today the Directors Guild of America, the union to which most Hollywood directors belong, announced their five nominations for Best Director of the Year. The nominees are Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan", David Fincher for "The Social Network", Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech", David O. Russell for "The Fighter" and Christopher Nolan for "Inception". Why do we say that the DGA is a good indicator of Oscar success? Because in the 62 years that the DGA has awarded a Best Director, that person has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Director 56 out of those 62 times.

Some were surprised that The Coen Brothers didn't win a DGA nomination for "True Grit", but you can be assured that "True Grit" will almost certainly take one of the ten Best Picture Oscar nominations, and The Coen's could still be nominated for an Oscar for Best Director, although their lack of a DGA nod will certainly hurt their chances for an Oscar win.

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