2011 Oscar Winners

Last night's Oscar winners: Christian Bale, Best Supporting Actor for "The Fighter"; Natalie Portman, Best Actress for "Black Swan"; Melissa Leo, Best Supporting Actress for "The Fighter"; and Colin Firth, Best Actor for "The King's Speech".

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Our complete Oscar coverage later today.

Someone's Having the Best Breakfast of His/Her Life

Well, the Oscar nominations have been announced, and let's check our predictions. Below are the actual nominees, followed by the people who we guessed would get them. And yes, we wimped out in three of the categories when we couldn't decide who would get the final spot, so in the parenthesis are our best guesses for who would get the final nomination spot.

(melissa leo in "the fighter")

Best Actor-
The Nominees: Colin Firth, Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, Jeff Bridges, Javier Bardem
We guessed: Colin Firth, Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, Mark Wahlberg, (Jeff Bridges or Javier Bardem)

-Wahlberg didn't come through as we thought he would, but his consolation prize is the fact that the film he worked so many years to make, "The Fighter", got a nod for Best Picture. And in Bardem's case, it looks like Oscar campaigning works. His movie, "Biutiful", got absolutely no attention, but everyone in Hollywood that saw it crowed loudly about Bardem's performance and started the peer pressure train in motion to recognize Bardem. It worked.

Best Actress-
The Nominees: Natalie Portman, Nicole Kidman, Annette Bening, Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Williams
We guessed: Natalie Portman, Nicole Kidman, Annette Bening, Jennifer Lawrence, Julianne Moore
 
-Julianne Moore didn't make it; Michelle Williams snuck in to take her spot. We didn't see that one coming.

Best Supporting Actor-
The Nominees: Christian Bale, Geoffrey Rush, John Hawkes, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner
We guessed: Christian Bale, Geoffrey Rush, John Hawkes, Mark Ruffalo, (Andrew Garfield, Jeremy Renner or Robert Duvall)

-Jeremy Renner got the final spot, as we guessed that he might, but we're a little surprised that Andrew Garfield didn't; Garfield had all the early buzz.

Best Supporting Actress-
The Nominees: Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jackie Weaver, Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter
We guessed: Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jackie Weaver, Amy Adams, (Mila Kunis, Lesley Manville, Barbara Hershey, Sissy Spacek or Dianne Wiest)

-We didn't know who would get that final spot, and we didn't even come close to guessing it. It probably would have gone to Mila Kunis, but Helena Bonham Carter snuck in to take it away from her.

We didn't guess which ten movies would get nominations for Best Picture, but here are the ten which earned them:
"The King's Speech", "The Social Network", "Toy Story 3", "Inception", "True Grit", "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "The Kids Are All Right", "127 Hours", "Winter's Bone".

 -We're thrilled that "Winter's Bone" snuck in to take a spot. It didn't get a lot of mainstream attention, but it's a hell of a good movie. And from its lack of nominations, it looks like "The Social Network" is continuing to lose steam as a possible big winner on Oscar night. If it doesn't win Best Picture, it will be because it peaked too early, winning too many awards too early, which makes the Oscar voters want to reward other movies which they feel haven't gotten their due, (the underdog effect). Or it could be because of what many have whispered, that the Academy is still mostly older folks, who don't appreciate Facebook or the young whippersnappers who they think are too obsessed with it.

(jennifer lawrence and john hawkes in "winter's bone")

We don't care much about the Directors, but the biggest snub of the morning seems to be Christopher Nolan's failure to get a Best Director nomination for "Inception", which got eight nominations overall. It looks like the Coen Brothers got his spot for "True Grit".

Now, as far as who will win the highly coveted trophies, we think Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo should go ahead and start writing acceptance speeches. See you on Feb. 27!

Attention K-Mart Shoppers: Today's Blue Light Special, 50% Off on All Golden Globes!

Despite the hype surrounding the publicity behemoth that is tonight's Golden Globes Awards, most industry insiders don't see the Hollywood Foreign Press's annual bestowing of movie awards as a serious indicator of Oscar success. The Golden Globes, over the years, have been tainted by too many scandals, including a brand new one accusing the head of the HFP of taking kickbacks and bribes for nominations, to be taken seriously as an objective measure of the best of Hollywood's annual output. For those who really wanted to gauge the latest scoreboard on the 2011 Oscars, all eyes were on Friday night's Critics Choice Movie Awards, which are awarded annually by the largest U.S. critics' group, the Broadcast Film Critics Association. The Critics Choice Movie Awards are the final awards given by a critics group before the hoopla of the Golden Globes, the SAG's, and the Oscar nominations themselves, and they have the distinction of being a very accurate predictor of Oscar success. The Critics correctly predicted the Oscar Best Picture the past four years in a row, and eight of the past ten years. On Friday night, the Critics awarded "The Social Network" as Best Picture, Colin Firth as Best Actor, Natalie Portman as Best Actress, Christian Bale as Best Supporting Actor and Melissa Leo as Best Supporting Actress.

Oscar Is Heading For the Final Turn

Ladies and Gentlemen, your Oscar winners for 2011: Colin Firth for Best Actor, Natalie Portman for Best Actress, Christian Bale for Best Supporting Actor, Hailee Steinfeld for Best Supporting Actress, and "The Social Network" for Best Picture.

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(mark wahlberg in "the fighter")

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Okay, we know the Oscars haven't been given out yet, the nominations haven't even been announced, but as we wrote last year, there are so many movie awards which are given out now before the Oscars, that it almost becomes a foregone conclusion who will win the Oscars by the time the winners are actually announced. In other words, there are almost never any surprises any longer.

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(hailee steinfeld and barry pepper in "true grit")

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In the past few days, three more critics groups, the Kansas City Film Critics Circle, the Phoenix Film Critics Society and the Online Film Critics Society, announced their 2010 film award winners. All three groups selected Colin Firth, Natalie Portman and Christian Bale in the Actor, Actress and Supporting Actor categories, respectively. They disagreed slightly over Supporting Actress and Best Picture; Kansas City and the Online folks picked Hailee Steinfeld and "The Social Network", but Phoenix picked Melissa Leo and "The King's Speech".

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(geoffrey rush and colin firth in "the king's speech")

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With these newest awards, the latest tally for critics groups wins stands at "The Social Network" having won 22 of 27 awards; Colin Firth having won 14 of 27 awards; Natalie Portman at 14 of 26; Christian Bale at 16 of 25; and Hailee Steinfeld at 8 of 25.

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And thus, our confidence in announcing, now, who will win the Oscars. That's not to say that the Oscar voters always vote the same way that movie critics do, hardly!, but at this point, peer pressure starts to have an effect. In other words, if one actor has won the bulk of praise from the country's critics, it becomes really difficult for a lowly Oscar voter, who might be an actor or film editor who hasn't worked in two years, to claim that they know better than the nation's critics. Another reason why the Oscar Awards sometimes resemble an election for junior high prom queen.

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(natalie portman in "black swan")

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However, and this is a big "however", one force that is always present at the Oscars is sentiment. And Oscar sentiment is a hell of a force. Sentiment means that Oscars voters often like to reward actors for "career achievement" or simply for their overwhelming popularity. You have to look no further than last year's wins for Jeff Bridges and Sandra Bullock to see the results of Oscar sentiment. Not that Bridges and Bullock weren't good in their roles, but you'd be hard pressed to find many film critics who really thought Bridges was better than Colin Firth last year, or Bullock was better than Meryl Streep.

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(jackie weaver and joel edgerton in "animal kingdom")

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So at this point, you can pretty much count on Colin Firth, Natalie Portman and Christian Bale wins. Annette Bening might upset Portman, but it's doubtful. And "The King's Speech" might upset "The Social Network", but that looks doubtful, too. The only major race that's still in contention is for Best Supporting Actress. Steinfeld, Melissa Leo and Jackie Weaver have split the critics votes three ways, but not nearly as many people will see Leo's and Weaver's movies as they will see Steinfeld in "True Grit", and Oscar voters will also want to reward the Coen Brothers' film with at least one acting award. Also, don't forget, Oscar voters are suckers for rewarding child actors, i.e. Patty Duke, Tatum O'Neal, Anna Paquin, etc.

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Next up are the industry awards, i.e. The Screen Actors Guild Awards, The Producers Guild Awards, etc. And these people, unlike the nation's film critics, actually belong to the Oscar Academy, which means they actually vote for the Oscars. So their selections over the next few days will really give us an even more accurate prediction of who will take home the most coveted naked man in Hollywood.

The Facebook Saga is Wiping the Floor With the Competition

Our most recent post of the Summary of Winners of the various movie critics' awards for 2010 was on December 14. On that day, only eight critics groups had announced their selections; since that day, a staggering sixteen more critics groups have bestowed their gifts. Isn't it funny how many of the critics groups have "Society" in their names, while their total membership numbers less than a dozen people? Anyway, here are the winners from the past two weeks. Try to keep up.

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(a new star is born: hailee steinfeld)

.The results are listed in order of Best Movie, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. If you don't know for which movie these stars have won, you've been living in a cave, which means you probably vote Republican and you, therefore, don't matter.

San Francisco Film Critics: "The Social Network", Colin Firth, Michelle Williams, John Hawkes, Jackie Weaver
New York Film Critics Circle: "The Social Network", Colin Firth, Annette Bening, Mark Ruffalo, Melissa Leo
San Diego Critics Society: "Winter's Bone", Colin Farrell, Jennifer Lawrence, John Hawkes, Lesley Manville
Toronto Film Critics Association: "The Social Network", Jesse Eisenberg, Jennifer Lawrence, Armie Hammer, Hailee Steinfeld
Detroit Film Critics Society: "The Social Network", Colin Firth, Jennifer Lawrence, Christian Bale, Amy Adams
Houston Film Critics Society: "The Social Network", Jesse Eisenberg, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Hailee Steinfeld
International Press Academy: "The Social Network", Colin Firth, Noomi Rapace, Christian Bale, Jackie Weaver
L.A. Weekly: "The Social Network", Jesse Eisenberg, Jennifer Lawrence, John Hawkes, Jackie Weaver
IndieWIRE: "The Social Network", Edgar Ramirez, Natalie Portman, John Hawkes, Jackie Weaver
Chicago Film Critics Association: "The Social Network", Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Hailee Steinfeld
Austin Film Critics: "Black Swan", Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Hailee Steinfeld
The Women Film Critics Circle: Colin Firth, Annette Bening
Black Film Critics Circle: "The Social Network", Colin Firth-James Franco (tie), Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Melissa Leo
Utah Film Critics Association: "The Social Network"-"127 Hours" (tie), James Franco, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Jackie Weaver
Oklahoma Film Critics Circle: "The Social Network", Jesse Eisenberg, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Mila Kunis
Indiana Film Journalists Association: "The Social Network", James Franco, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale, Hailee Steinfeld

New actors on this list which had heretofore been ignored by the critics' awards: Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine", Colin Firth for "Ondine", John Hawkes for "Winter's Bone", Armie Hammer for "The Social Network", Amy Adams for "The Fighter", Noomi Rapace for "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo", Edgar Ramirez for "Carlos", Mila Kunis for "Black Swan".