Someone's Having the Best Breakfast of His/Her Life

Well, the Oscar nominations have been announced, and let's check our predictions. Below are the actual nominees, followed by the people who we guessed would get them. And yes, we wimped out in three of the categories when we couldn't decide who would get the final spot, so in the parenthesis are our best guesses for who would get the final nomination spot.

(melissa leo in "the fighter")

Best Actor-
The Nominees: Colin Firth, Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, Jeff Bridges, Javier Bardem
We guessed: Colin Firth, Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, Mark Wahlberg, (Jeff Bridges or Javier Bardem)

-Wahlberg didn't come through as we thought he would, but his consolation prize is the fact that the film he worked so many years to make, "The Fighter", got a nod for Best Picture. And in Bardem's case, it looks like Oscar campaigning works. His movie, "Biutiful", got absolutely no attention, but everyone in Hollywood that saw it crowed loudly about Bardem's performance and started the peer pressure train in motion to recognize Bardem. It worked.

Best Actress-
The Nominees: Natalie Portman, Nicole Kidman, Annette Bening, Jennifer Lawrence, Michelle Williams
We guessed: Natalie Portman, Nicole Kidman, Annette Bening, Jennifer Lawrence, Julianne Moore
 
-Julianne Moore didn't make it; Michelle Williams snuck in to take her spot. We didn't see that one coming.

Best Supporting Actor-
The Nominees: Christian Bale, Geoffrey Rush, John Hawkes, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner
We guessed: Christian Bale, Geoffrey Rush, John Hawkes, Mark Ruffalo, (Andrew Garfield, Jeremy Renner or Robert Duvall)

-Jeremy Renner got the final spot, as we guessed that he might, but we're a little surprised that Andrew Garfield didn't; Garfield had all the early buzz.

Best Supporting Actress-
The Nominees: Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jackie Weaver, Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter
We guessed: Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jackie Weaver, Amy Adams, (Mila Kunis, Lesley Manville, Barbara Hershey, Sissy Spacek or Dianne Wiest)

-We didn't know who would get that final spot, and we didn't even come close to guessing it. It probably would have gone to Mila Kunis, but Helena Bonham Carter snuck in to take it away from her.

We didn't guess which ten movies would get nominations for Best Picture, but here are the ten which earned them:
"The King's Speech", "The Social Network", "Toy Story 3", "Inception", "True Grit", "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "The Kids Are All Right", "127 Hours", "Winter's Bone".

 -We're thrilled that "Winter's Bone" snuck in to take a spot. It didn't get a lot of mainstream attention, but it's a hell of a good movie. And from its lack of nominations, it looks like "The Social Network" is continuing to lose steam as a possible big winner on Oscar night. If it doesn't win Best Picture, it will be because it peaked too early, winning too many awards too early, which makes the Oscar voters want to reward other movies which they feel haven't gotten their due, (the underdog effect). Or it could be because of what many have whispered, that the Academy is still mostly older folks, who don't appreciate Facebook or the young whippersnappers who they think are too obsessed with it.

(jennifer lawrence and john hawkes in "winter's bone")

We don't care much about the Directors, but the biggest snub of the morning seems to be Christopher Nolan's failure to get a Best Director nomination for "Inception", which got eight nominations overall. It looks like the Coen Brothers got his spot for "True Grit".

Now, as far as who will win the highly coveted trophies, we think Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, Christian Bale and Melissa Leo should go ahead and start writing acceptance speeches. See you on Feb. 27!

Not So Gritty After All

Fort Smith, we have a problem.

We finally saw "True Grit" last week, and since the movie is certain to receive a few Oscar nominations tomorrow morning, it's time to give the movie its due. We first wrote about the movie one year ago, and like many, we were highly anticipating the Coen Brothers' remake of the classic film.

(Click on "Movies - True Grit" in the Labels List to read all of our posts about the movie.)
We love the work of the Coen Brothers; their Best Picture-winning "No Country for Old Men" is one of our favorite movies of all time. We knew it was a classic the minute we saw it, and it elevated the Coen Brothers in our minds to the status of "almost can do no wrong". Almost.

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(john wayne as rooster cogburn in "true grit")

.We're also very familiar with the original "True Grit" which won John Wayne his only Oscar, and which starred co-starred Kim Darby, Glen Campbell, Robert Duvall, Dennis Hopper and Strother Martin. And although we've always acknowledged problems with the original film, it was nevertheless very entertaining and has, over time, entered the pantheon of most beloved American movies. Even people who aren't crazy about the original movie will admit that it's respectably made and very entertaining.

And so you know what's coming. We can't help ourselves; we have to compare the new "True Grit" with the original. We know that's not the way to do a proper movie review, but then, we're not proper movie reviewers. Besides, if you're going to remake one of the most popular movies of all time, you're going to have to expect comparisons. Could you imagine if someone remade "Gone With The Wind" or "Star Wars" that most people wouldn't compare the remakes to the originals? Of course they would.

On its own, the new "True Grit" is good, there's no denying that fact. But we're sorry, Coen's, it's not all that you promised. Just before seeing the "new Grit", we heard an interview with the Coen's on National Public Radio, and they almost bragged that their version was superior to the original. They also made a big point of saying that their version was based on the original Charles Portis novel, not the original movie. That's strange, because the new Grit movie is an almost shot-for-shot copy of the original. There are a couple of new scenes in the new Grit, and a completely different ending, but if you looked at storyboards of the two movies side by side, they'd be almost identical. So let the comparisons begin!

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(john wayne and kim darby)

.John Wayne as the eye-patched Rooster Cogburn was a little white-washed, he certainly wasn't the drunken, dirty character from the novel, but he was good, nonetheless. He was John Wayne for gods sakes, and in 1969, that still carried a lot of weight. But Jeff Bridges almost went too far the other way, trying almost too hard to create a character which would shock somewhat in its dirty grunginess. And in the process he created a huge elephant in the room which we're very surprised no movie critic has mentioned: Bridges is doing Billy Bob Thornton from "Slingblade". We won't describe the "Slingblade" comparison any further, just see the movie, and let us know if you don't think the same thing. And sadly, Bridges just doesn't have the same gravity as John Wayne. The Coen's claimed that their "Grit" was about Rooster and not Mattie, but honestly, it didn't seem that way; Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie stole every scene she was in with Bridges.

Which brings us to Mattie. Hailee Steinfeld was very good; as we said, she stole the movie. But we're not sure she's that much better than Kim Darby in the original. In fact, Darby was a little more believable as someone who is obsessed with avenging her father's death. Steinfeld seems determined, but Darby seemed obsessed. There's a big difference.

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(jeff bridges and matt damon)

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The biggest improvement in the new Grit is, of course, the character of LaBoeuf. Matt Damon is an actor; Glen Campbell was not. Glen Campbell was cast because he was riding the wave of popularity as a pop singer at the time, but clearly he had no business being a movie actor. And out of respect for Campbell as a musician, we'll leave it at that. No we won't, he was horrific. But Damon is fantastic, and portrayed to perfection a character who is proud, thin-skinned and reckless, all the traits that Arkansan Charles Portis intended as a way to poke fun at a Texan.

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(strother martin in "true grit")

.Barry Pepper is good as Ned Pepper, but he's not as menacing as Robert Duvall was. In fact, Barry Pepper took quickly falls for Mattie and almost becomes a sympathetic character instead of someone so mean that you cheer when Rooster tries to blow his head off. And poor Dakin Matthews, who has to step into the role of Col. Stonehill, originally played by the legendary Strother Martin. Matthews is very good, but please, he's no Strother Martin. No one is, or ever will be, Strother Martin. Josh Brolin as Tom Chaney commits the same sin as Jeff Bridges, he tried too hard to create a "character" and almost comes off as laughable in the process.

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(hailee steinfeld and barry pepper)

.The cinematography in the new Grit is far superior to that in the original movie, and we're guessing that it will not only receive an Oscar nomination, but might actually win. But we were a little unnerved by how shiny and clean the town of Ft. Smith, Arkansas looked. Obviously, the Coen's were very proud of their town set, they highlighted it in one scene as if it was a character in the movie, but it looked like a movie set and not a real, lived-in 19th Century frontier town.

The biggest disappointment in the new Grit, though, above all else, was the music and score. The music in the original Grit was done by the legendary Elmer Bernstein, and even though some might feel his music was too "movie-like" and polished, it nevertheless helped to create real tension in several key scenes in the movie. The music in the new Grit was barely noticeable, and did nothing to add to the mood and feel of the story. The Coen's are famous for having a fantastic ear for music; their soundtrack for "O Brother Where Art Thou?" was so good that it beat out its pop, rock and rap competition to claim the Best Album Grammy in 2002. So it was particularly disappointing to watch the new Grit, waiting for music which would elevate the movie and key scenes, and it never came.

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(john wayne, kim darby and glen campbell)

.We'd still recommend the new "True Grit"; it's very good, and whether or not you've seen the original, it's very entertaining and overall, well-made. It will probably get an Oscar nomination for Best Picture, and it deserves one, but now, after having seen it, if we were the Coen's, we wouldn't be so quick to belittle the original.

The DGA's Golden Touch

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A couple of days ago, "The Social Network" picked up the Best Picture Award from the prestigious National Society of Film Critics, which brings the movie's win tally to 23 out of 28 trophies given so far this year from the country's various film critics groups. But as we've cautioned for several weeks now, Oscar voters are not critics, and just because one movie sweeps the critics awards doesn't mean it will do the same at the Oscars.
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But today, nominations were announced which definitely do foreshadow Oscar success. Today the Directors Guild of America, the union to which most Hollywood directors belong, announced their five nominations for Best Director of the Year. The nominees are Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan", David Fincher for "The Social Network", Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech", David O. Russell for "The Fighter" and Christopher Nolan for "Inception". Why do we say that the DGA is a good indicator of Oscar success? Because in the 62 years that the DGA has awarded a Best Director, that person has gone on to win the Oscar for Best Director 56 out of those 62 times.

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Some were surprised that The Coen Brothers didn't win a DGA nomination for "True Grit", but you can be assured that "True Grit" will almost certainly take one of the ten Best Picture Oscar nominations, and The Coen's could still be nominated for an Oscar for Best Director, although their lack of a DGA nod will certainly hurt their chances for an Oscar win.

Fresh Oscar Grub, Post-Thanksgiving Edition

Just like the rest of America, we here at East Village Afternoon had to take a couple of days off to stuff ourselves with turkey and mountains of pie, but after emerging from our tryptophan-induced vacay, we've found that Hollywood is buzzing louder than ever about the year's best movies. And one of them is going to take home the big prize, the Oscar for Best Picture.

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If we had to guess today which movies will fill the ten slots for Best Picture noms, we'd list: "Black Swan", "The Fighter", "The Social Network", "The King's Speech", "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1", "The Kids Are All Right", "True Grit", "Inception", "127 Hours" and "Toy Story 3/How to Train Your Dragon".

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Look for "Harry Potter" to snag a nom, not necessarily because it's a great movie, but because Hollywood likes to reward any movie franchise which hauls in ga-dillions of dollars. Remember when the third installment of "Lord of the Rings" won everything in sight, including Best Picture? And in that last slot, look for an animated movie to take a slot; at this point who knows which one will get it, "Toy Story 3" or "Dragon", but Hollywood likes to recognize at least one movie from the animated branch of the industry.

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As for the other eight contenders, "The Fighter", "Black Swan" and "127 Hours" are already being crossed off the list of potential winners because they're too gritty, horrific or just too strange for the older, more conservative-skewing Academy voters. At screenings of "127 Hours", people actually fainted. "Inception" gets high marks for its creativity and special effects, but not much else. A similar movie, "The Matrix", only won four Oscars, all for sound, editing and effects, but it wasn't even nominated for Best Picture.

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That leaves four movies which have a real chance at taking it all. Of those four, America has a real love/hate affair, mostly hate, with Facebook, so don't look for a movie about Facebook, "The Social Network", to engender a great deal of affection. "The Kids Are All Right" would normally be a serious contender, it's sort of like a friendlier, less-dark "American Beauty", but it has a big problem: the fact that the two central characters are lesbian. Yes, that's right, they're gay, Hollywood, gay, gay, GAY! And remember how it turned out when "Brokeback Mountain" went up against the much-lesser "Crash"? "Mountain" didn't win, let's put it that way. And even more horrifying to a lot of Academy members, the gay characters are happy, successful, wealthy and have two great kids who love them. The movie sort of gives the middle finger to those homophobic-riffic Academy members who can't fathom gay people unless those Sodomites are miserable and ready to commit suicide.

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So that leaves "The King's Speech" and "True Grit". Both are "safe" movies, which means they don't make older Academy members squirm in their seats, and from all accounts, they're both really, really good. "True Grit" hasn't even been released yet, but it's had a couple of private screenings, and some viewers of those screenings have Twittered that "True Grit" is a masterpiece. So which one will win? If it comes down to all other things being equal, we'd guess "True Grit", if for no other reason than the older American Academy members will vote for a good old fashioned, classic American western over a movie about those rich, snooty members of the British royal family. Americans love stories about themselves and stories which continue to add to the great American myth. We're guessing The Coen Brothers should probably start writing a second acceptance speech for Best Picture.

New Grit

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Yesterday we revealed some of People Magazine's "Sexiest Men Alive" for 2010, but they forgot one, Josh Brolin. Anyone who doesn't think Josh Brolin is not one of the hottest guys on the planet needs his/her head examined.
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Brolin's new movie, "True Grit", opens next month, and we're hoping it might bring Brolin his much deserved first Oscar. The movie itself, directed by The Coen Brothers, is so highly anticipated, that literally every film critic which normally predicts the outcome of the upcoming Oscars is putting their predictions on hold until they see "True Grit". If "True Grit" lives up to expectations, it could crush at the next Academy Awards.
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To read our ongoing posts about "True Grit" over the past year, go to the Labels List at the right of this page and click on "Movies - 'True Grit'".

More Oscar Grub

Last week we wrote a piece about the 2011 Oscar Race, and since then, more articles have been written about which movies and which actors are generating the most Oscar buzz.
The movies which we had previously heard had the inside track were The Social Network, The King's Speech, Hereafter, The Fighter and True Grit. Add to that list The Kids Are All Right, Inception, Toy Story 3, 127 Hours and Rabbit Hole.

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(colin firth and helena bonham carter in "the king's speech")

.New Summary: The Social Network was an early leader, but now has all but been swept aside by the critics' lovefest for The King's Speech. But wait, True Grit and The Fighter won't even be released until after Thanksgiving and are expecting to be major contenders.

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(james franco in

"127 hours")

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Earlier we mentioned the actors which were getting the most attention by the naked, golden man were Robert DeNiro and Edward Norton for "Stone", James Franco for "127 Hours", Sean Penn for "Fair Game", Geoffrey Rush and Colin Firth for "The King's Speech, Christian Bale and Mark Wahlberg for "The Fighter", Johnny Depp for "The Tourist", Stephen Dorff for "Somewhere", Jeff Bridges for "True Grit", Ryan Gosling for "Blue Valentine".

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(jeff bridges in "true grit")

.New Summary: Add to that list Mark Ruffalo for "The Kids Are All Right" and Javier Bardem for "Biutiful", but it might not matter, Colin Firth is blowing away the competition. At this point, they've practically already engraved Firth's name on the statuette, especially considering that many think he should have won last year. But don't count out James Franco. "127 Hours" opened strongly at the box office and despite the gory nature of the film, many critics are predicting that Franco could challenge Firth. But, we said it before, and we'll say it again, the horse which might take the lead on the final turn is Jeff Bridges for "True Grit". At this point, the Best Actor race is a three man contest.

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(annette bening in

"the kids are all right")

.As for the women, our previous list included Milla Jovovich for "Stone", Gemma Arterton for "Tamara Drew", Minnie Driver for "Conviction", Naomi Watts for "Fair Game", Natalie Portman for "Black Swan", Angelina Jolie for "The Tourist", Elle Fanning for "Somewhere", Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit", Lesley Manville for "Another Year", Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine".

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(lesley manville in "another year")

.New Summary: Definitely add to that list Annette Bening for "The Kids Are All Right". After losing Oscar races before, two to Hilary Swank alone, this might finally be her year. Lesley Manville is a film festival favorite, especially at Cannes, but she'll have to get more mainstream attention to seriously challenge. Manville might be the classic example of an actor for which just getting a nomination is considered the reward, while no one expects her to actually walk away with the trophy. One on our previous list which can maybe be crossed off is Minnie Driver; "Conviction" is not exactly wowing the critics. A possible, strong dark horse is Natalie Portman for "Black Swan".

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(natalie portman in "black swan")

.We haven't yet split the actors into "Lead" and "Supporting" categories because, at this point, some of the actors on the buzz list could fall into either category, and into which race they'll eventually enter won't be fully determined until later in the season.

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To read our previous post on the 2011 Oscar race, click on "2011 Oscars" in the Labels list.

Oscar Grub

The race to pick the next Oscar winners starts earlier every year, but why not, the football world picks pre-season favorites, mid-season favorites, post-season favorites and winners for every season in between. So why shouldn't those of us who love movies not indulge our obsessions year round as well? With that said, here are some of the pre-season actors and films which are already getting major Oscar buzz. If you've seen any of them, let us know what you think!
.(mark wahlberg in "the fighter")
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.MOVIES WITH BUZZ: The Social Network, Waiting for Superman, Inside Job, The King's Speech, Hereafter, The Fighter and True Grit.

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PREDICTION: Expect "True Grit" to crush.

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(stephen dorff and

elle fanning in "somewhere")

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ACTORS WITH BUZZ: Robert DeNiro and Edward Norton for "Stone"; James Franco for "127 Hours"; Sean Penn for "Fair Game"; Geoffrey Rush and Colin Firth for "The King's Speech; Christian Bale and Mark Wahlberg for "The Fighter; Johnny Depp for "The Tourist"; Stephen Dorff for "Somewhere"; Jeff Bridges for "True Grit" and Ryan Gosling for "Blue Valentine".

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PREDICTION: This year's group of male Oscar hopefuls are dominated by several actors who have turned in consistently good work for several years but have never been recognized by Oscar. So we're guessing this year's winner will be one of those guys who the Oscar voters decide that it's finally his "turn"; Wahlberg, Firth, Dorff, Bale, Gosling, Norton and Franco have all never won an Oscar. Unless, of course, Jeff Bridges turns the whole thing on its ear and wins for the second year in a row for "True Grit". Don't be surprised if that happens.

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ACTRESSES WITH BUZZ: Milla Jovovich for "Stone"; Gemma Arterton for "Tamara Drew"; Minnie Driver for "Conviction"; Naomi Watts for "Fair Game"; Natalie Portman for "Black Swan"; Angelina Jolie for "The Tourist"; Elle Fanning for "Somewhere"; Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit", Lesley Manville for "Another Year" and Michelle Williams for "Blue Valentine".

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(naomi watts and sean penn in "fair game")

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(milla jovovich and robert deniro at a press conference for "stone")

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PREDICTION: Jovovich has been a consistently good actor for many years but with never a break-through role; this could be it. Naomi Watts will get the liberal Hollywood sympathy vote because she's playing someone who was wronged by one of the greatest real-life villians of all time, Dick Cheney. We've also got not one, but two, potential Tatum O'Neal-type child winners, Fanning and Steinfeld. This one's a real toss-up, we'll have to wait awhile longer to see who starts to get the most serious buzz.

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Have you seen any of these films? Let us know what you think.

More True Grit... Grittier

That movie about the Facebook megalomaniac might have won the weekend box office, but it's not the movie everyone is talking about. That buzz goes to the Coen Brothers' "True Grit". Just last week the Coen's released a teaser trailer for the film, and yesterday they released the official full trailer. Looks good, people!

The Coen's Need to Clear More Space on Their Trophy Shelf

The Coen Brothers, who won the Best Picture Oscar for their already classic film, "No Country For Old Men", have just released the trailer for their remake of another classic film, the 1969 John Wayne Oscar-winner, "True Grit". The new "True Grit", starring Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon and Josh Brolin, will open in December 2010, and is already being mentioned as a strong contender for a wagon-load of Oscars. We've been posting about the film since it was first announced as a project several months ago; to see all our posts about the movie, go to the Labels List on the right of this page and click on "Movies - 'True Grit'".

And Make Way for More Grammys As Well

The all star cast for the new "True Grit" includes Jeff Bridges and newcomer Hailee Steinfeld, Matt Damon and Josh Brolin.
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..And in case you're instantly entranced by the music in the film's trailer, as we were, the song is an old hymn, "Where No One Stand Alone" sung by the Peasall Sisters. If the Peasall name sounds familiar, the girls also sang on the soundtrack for an earlier Coen Brothers' movie, "O Brother Where Art Thou?". .
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.The soundtrack for "O Brother Where Art Thou?" won the 2002 Grammy for Best Album of the Year, causing an infamous outcry from a muscially ignorant P. Diddy who couldn't believe that a "country album" could beat a hip hop album for the Album of the Year Grammy. Oh, Diddy, Diddy, Diddy... maybe one day you'll actually know something about really great music. But we doubt it.